Alex Ovechkin: A career by the numbers

By: Asa Montreaux

It is phenomenon that many people thought would never occur in the NHL post Wayne-Gretzky, post 90s. The league had become so slowed, and so defensive, it didn’t seem anyone would ever score in the same quantities again. It seemed, that no one would ever beat Wayne Gretzky’s goals record, in a league with far less goals, its golden age past.

But, once in a while another player of all-time talent comes along, and they are able to do the unthinkable. A comparable situation might be who is the greater basketball player, Michael Jordan, or LeBron James? A lot of people would say LeBron James.

Wayne Gretzky once scored 92 goals in a season. This had not been possible in today’s NHL. All experts agree, even if Gretzky were playing today.

But Ovechkin had once totalled 65 goals in one season. It happened just two years after the lock-out year of the NHL. That stoppage was most driven by a lack of goals, with not one 50 goals scorer the year prior to the lock-out. Goals did increase t league changes following the lock-out, but the defensive style of teams remained, unaffected by rules, with new goals seeming to come often at a trickle, and only in power play situations. 

However, never in NHL history has there been such a consistent, lethal goals scorer as Alex Ovechkin. Even as he gets older, he continues to hammer home goal after goal.

Take a look at the numbers yourself.

To the point of the article: he now sits second all-time in goals with 886, and will reach number one in goals all-time, likely before the end of the season.

How long will it take?

With sixteen games left in the season, based on Ovechkin’s goal rate at this stage of his career, he will score another eight goals before the end of the season, for a total of 41 goals. This will place his total at exactly 894.

In the following season, if he is not injured, his current production rate indicates he will score 43 goals.

If he does not reach the number this year, he will next season. 

Ovechkin is 39 right now, and he will turn 40 before the start of the next season. In that event he would become the greatest goal scorer in NHL history in October 2025, in one of the first 4-5 games of the season. He would be 40 years and one month old.

If it does in fact happen this season, it is likely to happen on April 12, 13, 15 or 17. They play back to back against Columbus on April 12 and 13, and then the Islanders on the road. They will not be at home for all but one of these games, the April 13 game against Columbus. But it would nonetheless be a very special event.

Depending on the success of the team, the depth of the roster, how confident Ovechkin is feeling, his career has been through jumps, even though his production has marginally declined throughout his career. His production level has nonetheless been steady enough, that he will continue to be a key player, and a high goal scorer, even past 40 years of age. After he breaks the goal record, through record level consistency, he could go on to score approximately 980 goals, before he turns 42. This is if he stays healthy during the seasons. Could he play more? Could he play at 43? Could he score 1,000 goals? Time will tell.