How Americans are voting, if the election was today

By: Asa Montreaux

The 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains tightly contested, with polls across multiple states showing narrow margins that reflect an evenly divided electorate. Data from various sources highlights just how competitive this election has become, with Harris slightly ahead in some key battlegrounds, though her lead is not guaranteed.

Harris leads by a slim margin in the popular vote, but recent national polls provide different snapshots of the race. For instance, a New York Times/Siena College poll released on September 8 shows Trump leading by 1 point nationwide, while other polls like Emerson College and CNN’s "Poll of Polls" show Harris with a 2-4 point lead. Independents—a critical voting bloc—favor Harris in some polls by as much as 49.5% compared to Trump's 41.8%. Harris’ overall national lead averages between 1-3 percentage points, though these numbers fluctuate as new data is released weekly.

*

The real contest lies in the battleground states, which are set to determine the outcome of the election. According to a CNN/SSRS poll, Harris has a small but significant lead in several key swing states, including Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada. In these states, Harris holds an edge of about 0.8 to 2 percentage points, though her leads in some cases are within the margin of error. Here’s a breakdown of the battleground situation:

- Georgia: Harris leads by just 1.5 points, according to Decision Desk HQ polling, and her advantage is tenuous. 

- Michigan: Harris is up by 2 points, benefiting from Democratic Senate candidates' stronger showing in the state.

- Wisconsin: With a lead of 1.8%, Harris is capitalizing on pro-choice sentiment in the state following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

- Nevada: Harris has a narrow 1.2-point lead in the Silver State.

However, Trump leads in Arizona, where he has a 5-point advantage. Trump’s campaign also finds strength in Pennsylvania, where the two candidates are tied at 47% each. These states are particularly important, as they carry enough electoral votes to swing the outcome in Trump's favor despite the national popular vote.

*

Voters’ preferences vary based on key issues, and the candidates perform differently depending on the topic:

- Economy and Immigration: Trump has a clear advantage in both sectors. His messaging on reducing inflation and securing the U.S.-Mexico border resonates with many voters, especially in traditionally Republican-leaning states like Arizona and Texas.

- Reproductive Rights and Democracy: Harris gains ground on issues such as reproductive rights and democracy, where her pro-choice stance and defense of election integrity play well, particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Trump’s efforts to undermine the 2020 election results hurt his standing among moderate voters.

*

While polling data provides valuable insights into the current state of the race, there’s always the potential for a significant shift by election day. In the 2016 and 2020 elections, polls underestimated Trump’s support, particularly among non-college-educated white voters and in rural areas. This demographic has remained loyal to Trump, suggesting that the polls may once again be underestimating his base. Furthermore, voter turnout can make a decisive difference. A surge in voter participation in urban and suburban areas, particularly among younger voters and women, could help Harris, while low turnout in these areas might benefit Trump.

The complexity of the electoral college system also means that a candidate could lose the popular vote yet win the presidency. Trump himself won the electoral vote in 2016 despite losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million.

As it stands, Harris has a slight edge in the popular vote and a narrow lead in several battleground states, but Trump remains a formidable competitor, especially in key swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania. The outcome of the election remains uncertain, and polling data—while useful—should be viewed with caution given the potential for last-minute shifts and voter turnout discrepancies. As election day nears, the decisive votes in these critical battlegrounds will become more and more crucial to each candidate.

Edited by: Asa Montreaux